Introduction
Using Excel for supply chain forecasting
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What you need to know
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Using exercise files
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1. Forecasting Fundamentals
The role of forecasting in supply chain management
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Preparing to forecast
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Quantitative vs. qualitative forecasting
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Key types of forecasting methods
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2. Fundamentals of Using Excel in Time Series Forecasting
Time series explained
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Define level and trend with Excel
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Using Excel to define seasonality
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Introduce challenge
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Challenge solution
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3. Understanding Forecasting Errors
Measuring forecast errors
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Mean absolute deviation (MAD)
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Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
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Root mean squared error (RMSE)
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Introduce challenge
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Challenge solution
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4. Bias in Forecasting
What is forecast bias?
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Calculating bias
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Determining bias significance
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Introduce challenge
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Challenge solution
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5. Moving Average Forecasting
Moving averages and smoothing
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Simple and weighted moving average
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Exponential moving average
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Introduce challenge
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Challenge solution
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6. Trendlines and Simple Linear Regression
Simple linear regression fundamentals
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Simple linear regression
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Standard error of the regression
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Introduce challenge
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Challenge solution
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7. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
Linear vs. exponential trends
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Exponential curves
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Calculating compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
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Introduce challenge
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Challenge solution
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8. Seasonality and Ratio to Moving Average Method
Seasonal index
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Centered moving average
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Periodic index
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Seasonal index
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Seasonal trendline formula
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Seasonal forecast
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Introduce challenge
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Challenge solution
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9. Multiple Regression Forecasting
What is multiple regression?
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Preparing data for multiple regression in Excel
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Running a multiple regression in Excel
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Interpreting multiple regression output
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Developing a multi-variable equation to develop a forecast using regression output
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Conclusion
Continue exploring supply chain forecasting concepts
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Ex_Files_Excel_Data_Analysis_Supply_Chain.zip
(2.0 MB)