Introduction
Projecting the financial future
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1. Financial Forecasting for Strategic Decision-Making
Deduce the connection between past and future business performance
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Analyze potential business with a financial forecast
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Evaluate how banks use a financial forecast to make loans
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Use financial forecasts to make investment decisions
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Reflect new information in financial forecasts
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Use AI effectively in financial statement forecasting
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Excel: Growth extrapolation and loan candidate evaluation
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2. Start with an Accurate Sales Forecast
IBM and the famously bad sales forecast
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Combine historical trends with current plans to forecast
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Incorporate seasonal patterns into your forecast
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Use sensitivity analysis to minimize the costs of being wrong
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Use AI to increase the reliability of data used in forecasting sales
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Excel: Build a multifactor sales forecast
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3. What Causes Financial Statement Numbers to Change?
Home Depot in 1985: Three weeks to live
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Monitor financial statements to keep forecasts accurate
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Incorporate long-term planning into forecasts
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Revise financial forecasts based on financing options
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Use AI to conduct sensitivity analysis
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Excel: Forecast assets and sensitivity analysis
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4. Construct a Forecasted Income Statement
The Gap: How change affects the forecasting process
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Forecast sales-based expenses
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Forecast fixed costs and variable costs
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Forecast interest and income taxes
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Use AI to revise financial statement forecasts
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Excel: Forecast net income and sensitivity analysis
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5. Construct a Forecasted Balance Sheet
Use the power of the accounting equation
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Identify the missing numbers in forecasts
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Assess the use of "plugs": Cash, investments, and paid-in capital
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Use the realistic but challenging "plug": Loans
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Use AI models to incorporate granular data
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Excel: Assess different financing "plug" options
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6. Construct a Forecasted Statement of Cash Flows
Home Depot: The importance of cash flow
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Compute cash flows by analyzing other financial statements
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Forecast operating cash flow
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Forecast investing cash flow
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Forecast financing cash flow
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Use AI to incorporate qualitative data into forecasting
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Excel: Fix Home Depot's operating cash flow
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Conclusion
Create processes for dynamic modeling
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Ex_Files_Financial_Modeling_Forecasting.zip
(55 KB)
Glossary_Financial_Modelingand_Forecasting_Financial_Statements.zip
(67 KB)